Kerry is going to win the 2004 Election
"How do you know?" asks the suspicious reader. Well, here are a couple things to think about.
1. The news of the "lost" 380 TONS of highest-grade explosives in Iraq is terrifying, and Kerry should and is making it a very big issue immediately. When I read about it this morning I just slumped in my chair in shock. Close your eyes and visualize 380 TONS. The Pan Am flight that had been destroy a couple years ago had been downed by less than a pound of this sort of stuff. These explosives are much more powerful than TNT. 380 TONS would fill about 40 trucks, explains the New York Times. (These are trucks capable of carrying 10 tons—20,000 pounds—apiece!
I'm just horrified for our troops in Iraq. This fiasco (which is easily and squarely blamed on bad planning and management, not so easy to displace, on behalf of the Bush administration) means that the insurgents—and any terrorists they want to equip—have an almost unlimited supply of death they can deal out!
This should be easier for Kerry to exploit than arguing about flu supplies.
2. There are a lot of studies that show, in a tight race, "undecideds" usually break substantially (over 80%) for the challenger and that the incumbent almost always does a full point or two lower than the last poll.
Additionally, the recent national news saying Bush is ahead by 2% is talking about popular vote. If a bunch of Bush's core supporters in Alabama flood to the polls on voting day it wont make a lick of difference. Bush is NOT winning so decisively in the battleground states which is WHERE EVERYTHING MATTERS, folks!
3. There's the "inevitability" factor. Educated people tend to be cautious when they make claims like "Kerry is going to win" because they know and acknowledge that they can't actually know that. They're worried about looking like idiots if they're wrong.
Republicans, those crafty folk, have learned that it doesn't matter whether you are right or wrong, only that you win. And when you confidently claim that you are winning, if it is done with enough repetition, you convince your opponents as well.
With a race this close, the simple fact is that Republicans know the best strategy is to scream "Yea! We're winning!" very very loudly. For this reason, it's just as important for us Democrats to yell with equal confidence "Yea! They're going down! We've got this one solid!"
So YEA! GO TEAM! WE'RE GONNA WIN! YEA! (Try it out for yourselves.)
Posted by Murray Todd Williams at October 25, 2004 08:33 AMGO TEAM Kerry! This is exactly what I thought last night, after the Red Sox won. Things happen in threes, so the old wives' tale goes. Well, Massachusetts will give and get its threes this year. I firmly believe it. 1.) Gay Marriage. 2.) Red Sox win after 86 years of losing. 3.) Kerry wins the Presidency and doesn't get it snatched away illegally, like poor Gore. Also not that his initials are the same as John Fitzgerald Kennedy's. Superstitious mumbo jumbo? Who cares if it helps us to believe, and to declare our belief in his victory. Hat Trick.
Posted by: Carole at October 28, 2004 06:14 PMGO KERRY!
Posted by: Chris at October 29, 2004 02:25 AM